NY State has not come clean about the huge cost of electrifying everything
New York’s CLCPA law set extreme carbon reduction goals without specifying how they would be accomplished. Now that the Climate Action Council has issued its recommendations and some initiatives are in motion, and we are seeing the huge costs and problems of some of the requirements.
“Cap-and-Invest” is a new tax on the energy you use
Lawmakers and regulators in Albany are moving ahead with a complicated revenue-raising scheme they call “Cap-and-Invest.” It requires companies whose energy products generate emissions — including suppliers of your home’s heating fuel, your car’s gasoline and the fuel that generates electricity and transports the goods you need — to purchase “allowances” based on their estimated greenhouse gas impact.
They call it a tax on “polluters,” but the cost of these “allowances” will certainly be passed along to all New York consumers like the rest of inflation. It amounts to a massive new tax.
NY plans to punish consumers who don’t switch to electricity fast enough
New Yorkers already pay some of the highest energy bills in the country, including electric rates that have been increasing in painful ways. We pay the nation’s fifth-highest monthly average for natural gas, and our gasoline taxes are a full 10 cents per gallon higher than the national average. Cap-and-Invest will make this financial pain considerably worse.
This pain will start lower, and costs will ratchet up each year. A recent analysis conducted by Upstate United found that Cap-and-Invest could cause New Yorkers’ gasoline prices to increase 12 cents a gallon by 2026 and 22 cents per gallon as soon as 2027.
Former Department of Environmental Conservation Commissioner Basil Seggos has said that, ultimately, Cap-and-Invest could increase gasoline prices by 62 cents-per-gallon, natural gas costs by 80% and similarly increase the cost of heating oil and propane.
Details of this plan are being worked out right now. It is critical that you make your voice heard before these plans are set in stone. Make your voice heard right now!
Get ready for electricity rates to surge
New York’s climate plan aims to increase the costs of traditional fuels for New Yorkers to compel them to switch to EVs, heat pumps and other electric equipment. But the rates that New Yorkers pay are already 62% higher than the national average and have been surging faster than most of the rest of the country.
Now, Albany wants to vastly increase demand on New York’s grid while making unprecedented changes to how we generate our power. This not only imperils the reliability of the grid, but it also places upward demand pressure and requires new infrastructure spending. The result: higher electric bills for everyday families.
$20,000+ to convert to heat pumps and electric appliances
The Climate Action Council plans call for the state to outlaw natural gas, heating oil and propane gas system replacements starting as early as 2030. So if your boiler, furnace or water heater goes down, you would need to switch to heat pumps, at significantly higher costs. The regulations have not been finalized yet, but we see where things are heading.
How much higher? Results reported from three different heat pump conversion programs run by the New York State Energy Research Development Agency (NYSERDA) and the Massachusetts Clean Energy Center (MCEC) confirm that the cost of the work would run $20,000-$25,000 for a whole house conversion to heat pumps. While there are currently subsidies for electric conversion, the installation costs now probably exceed those reported because: 1) they were based on installations from several years ago, before the cost of heating equipment and labor increased significantly, 2) they were for small homes and 3) they only covered the heating system, not the additional cost of converting water heaters and stoves, which will also be required. Additionally, as of 2025, a federal requirement for new refrigerant in every system went into effect. This is increasing the cost of heat pumps even more, and there is a shortage of refrigerant supply.
Moreover, converting to heat pumps is no simple thing. Imagine what happens if your unit fails during extremely cold weather, and all of this needs to be done? Now consider that NY already has some of the highest electric rates in the country and are projected to go even higher.
Burdening school districts with budget-breaking bus mandates.
New York has also told school districts that they need to stop buying traditionally-fueled school buses by 2032 and begin purchasing electric school buses. But electric buses are 2.5 to 4 times more expensive than the vehicles they replace. An electric 46-seat Type C bus can cost $250,000 more than a gasoline or diesel-powered bus!
By contrast, propane autogas school buses can slash emissions quickly and with substantially lower conversion costs.
Widespread electrification of school buses will likely have a massive impact on property taxes and what schools can spend to actually educate our children.
Who will this hurt the most?
We need to ensure that the path to zero emissions doesn’t leave those least able to pay behind. Wealthy residents have the means to pay new taxes and cover pricy system conversions. Many lower-income households will receive subsidies. But a considerable number of working and middle-class families will have to shoulder the cost of this law.
If NY State moves too far too fast, it will create a backlash across the state against any efforts to curb carbon emissions. NY needs a smarter energy policy that take advantage of traditional fuels that can increasingly reduce their carbon content and increase their efficiency. It needs to recognize that forcing people to pay significantly more for energy and give up their freedom to choose will set back the path of carbon reduction.